Estimating “land use heritage” to model changes in archaeological settlement patterns

International audienceIn this paper, we present a method to calculate a “land use heritage map” based on the concept of “memory of landscape”. Such a map can be seen as one variable among others influencing site location preference, and can be used as input for predictive models. The computed values equate to an index of long-term land use intensity. We will first discuss the method used for creating the land use heritage map, for which kernel density estimates are used.We will then present the use of these land use heritage maps for site location analysis in two study areas in SE France. Earlier analyses showed that the influence of the natural environment on settlement location choice in the Roman period is limited. In contrast, land use heritage seems to have a stronger influence on the placement of new settlements. We will discuss the implications for predictive modelling of settlement patterns.